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© 2001 American Society for Clinical Oncology Indicators of Lifetime Estrogen Exposure: Effect on Breast Cancer Incidence and Interaction With Raloxifene Therapy in the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation Study ParticipantsFrom the Osteoporosis Research Program, Womens College Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Lombardi Cancer Center, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC; Lilly Research Laboratories, Indianapolis, IN; Department of Epidemiology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA; and Departments of Medicine and Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, CA. Address reprint requests to Marc E. Lippman, MD, Department of Internal Medicine, 3101 Taubman Center, University of Michigan Health System, 1500 East Medical Center Dr, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-0368; email: lippmanm{at}umich.edu
PURPOSE: To test the hypothesis that risk factors related to lifetime estrogen exposure predict breast cancer incidence and to test if any subgroups experience enhanced benefit from raloxifene. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Postmenopausal women with osteoporosis (N = 7,705), enrolled onto the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE) trial, were randomly assigned to receive placebo, raloxifene 60 mg/d, or raloxifene 120 mg/d for 4 years. Breast cancer risk was analyzed by the following baseline characteristics indicative of estrogen exposure: previous hormone replacement therapy, prevalent vertebral fractures, family history of breast cancer, estradiol level, bone mineral density (BMD), body mass index, and age at menopause. Therapy-by-subgroup interactions were assessed using a logistic regression model.
RESULTS: Overall, women with the highest one-third estradiol levels ( CONCLUSION: The MORE trial confirms that increased lifetime estrogen exposure increases breast cancer risk. Raloxifene therapy reduces breast cancer risk in postmenopausal osteoporotic women regardless of lifetime estrogen exposure, but the reduction is greater in those with higher lifetime exposure to estrogen.
Identification of women who are at increased risk for breast cancer, and thus may benefit more from lifestyle modifications or preventive therapies, is an emerging and growing need. It is also essential to understand any variability in the effect of preventive therapies among patient populations. Endogenous estrogen exposure has been linked to increased breast cancer risk, both measured directly through serum estradiol levels1,2 and as assessed through surrogate indicators of lifetime estrogen exposure, such as nulliparity, older age at first birth, early menarche, late menopause,3,4 and increased breast density.5 Other estrogen-related risk factors also have been identified, including other disease states. For example, women with osteoporosis are more likely to have a lower lifetime estrogen exposure and a lower risk for breast cancer,6,7 Body mass index (BMI), which is negatively correlated with premenopausal breast cancer risk,8 is positively correlated with postmenopausal breast cancer risk.9-11 In addition, obese women have higher endogenous estrogen levels11 and are more likely to develop estrogen receptorpositive (ER+) tumors.12 Although the role of endogenous estrogen in breast cancer has been established,13 the role of exogenous hormones in the form of estrogen replacement therapy (ERT) or hormone replacement therapy (HRT) seems probable but remains controversial. Two large studies (one prospective study and one literature review) both concluded that HRT increases breast cancer risk.14,15 Even though the magnitude of increased breast cancer risk caused by exogenous estrogen is unknown, the fear of cancer prevents many women from taking estrogen therapies.16 Raloxifene is a selective ER modulator with estrogen agonist effects on bone17,18 and lipids17,19 and estrogen antagonist effects in the breast and uterus.20-22 Raloxifene is currently approved in the United States for the prevention and treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. The Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE) Study (a double blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial) evaluated the effect of long-term therapy with raloxifene in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. The incidence of breast cancer was a secondary end point of the trial, and previous analyses indicated that raloxifene reduced the incidence of invasive breast cancer and ER+ invasive breast cancers compared with placebo after 40 months of follow-up.20 We hypothesized that patients in MORE with the highest exposure to estrogen would have the greatest risk of breast cancer, and correspondingly, that the effect of raloxifene would be greatest in those patients. We confirmed that several risk factors for breast cancer (eg, serum estradiol levels, bone mineral density [BMD], BMI, or family history of breast cancer) predict breast cancer incidence in the MORE trial. We demonstrated that women in subgroups reflecting higher estrogen exposure experience enhanced benefit from raloxifene therapy.
Patients This multicenter, randomized trial enrolled 7,705 postmenopausal ( 2 years past menopause) women of up to 80 years of age with osteoporosis, as defined by low BMD (lumbar spine or femoral neck t-score -2.5) or prevalent vertebral fractures.18,20 Women with a known or suspected history of breast cancer, invasive endometrial cancer, abnormal uterine bleeding, or history of stroke or venous thromboembolic disease during the past 10 years were excluded. Women were also excluded if they had taken systemic estrogen (except estriol 2 mg/d); topical estrogen more often than three times a week; progestins, androgens, or corticosteroids during the previous 6 months; or if they drank more than four alcoholic drinks per day. All women provided written informed consent. There were no therapy-group differences for any baseline characteristic (Table 1).
Therapy and Randomization Women were randomly assigned to receive placebo, raloxifene 60 mg/d (Evista; Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, IN), or raloxifene 120 mg/d for 48 months, so that twice as many women received raloxifene as received placebo trial (2,576 assigned to placebo; 2,557 to raloxifene 60 mg/d; and 2,572 to raloxifene 120 mg/d). All women were given 500 mg/d calcium and 400 to 600 IU/d vitamin D supplements. Eli Lilly and Company supplied sequentially numbered kits of randomly assigned study medication containing identically appearing raloxifene and placebo tablets, which were distributed in numerical order by the trial centers to qualified patients.
Breast Cancer Ascertainment All reported cases of breast cancer were reviewed by an independent blinded adjudication committee of five breast cancer specialists and one nonvoting pharmacologic scientist, none of whom were employed by the sponsor.20 The committee reviewed patient history, mammograms, and available pathology reports from each reported case of breast cancer and determined whether the cancer was (1) a confirmed diagnosis of primary breast cancer and (2) invasive or noninvasive. A diagnosis of indeterminate was assigned when data were insufficient for evaluation.
Analysis We analyzed the relationship between the incidence of breast cancer and demographic and baseline patient characteristics, including the following: serum estradiol level, femoral neck BMD, BMI, age at menopause, previous HRT use, prevalent vertebral fractures, and family history of breast cancer. Analyses of breast cancer incidence according to baseline indicators of estrogen exposure were accomplished by dichotomizing baseline variables into two categories. For categorical variables, this dichotomization was based on a yes/no characteristic (eg, previous HRT use [yes/no]; family history of breast cancer [yes/no]). For continuous variables such as BMI and BMD, we divided the participants into two categories: the one third of the cohort with highest theoretical exposure to estrogen (eg, the one third with the highest baseline BMI) versus the two thirds with average to low theoretical exposure to estrogen (Table 2).
We analyzed the effect of each dichotomized baseline demographic variable using a logistic regression model, adjusting for therapy effect. We also tested for a differential therapy effect among patients with higher theoretical exposure to estrogen (v those with lower estrogen exposure) using a logistic regression model with a term for therapy, subgroup, and interaction. The relative risk of developing breast cancer during raloxifene therapy versus placebo was estimated for each subgroup of the demographic variables considered. In addition, the relative risk among patients in the high-estradiol exposure versus low-estradiol exposure subgroups was determined within each therapy group. Results were considered statistically significant if P < .05 or if a 95% confidence interval (CI) excluded 1.0. CIs were calculated using the Mantel-Haenszel estimates provided in SAS Version 6.09 (Cary, NC). For one of the assessed subgroups (patients with family history of breast cancer), none of the patients assigned to raloxifene developed invasive breast cancer. To obtain the upper confidence limit for this subgroup, we arbitrarily added one breast cancer patient on raloxifene among women with a family history of breast cancer for purposes of calculation. We believe this is a conservative estimate.
More than 99.97% of the 7,705 postmenopausal women had breast imaging at baseline, and 48% elected to have an optional breast imaging procedure at the 12-month visit; 91% to 94% of women had required annual breast imaging at years 2, 3, and 4. The small proportion of women choosing sonography at each annual visit (approximately 3% of patients with imaging performed) was similar among therapy groups. Approximately 12% of women reported use of any form of estrogen at some point during the trial; there were no treatment-group differences in the use of concomitant estrogens.
Breast Cancer
Breast Cancer Risk Factor Subgroups
Raloxifene reduced the risk of breast cancer in both the low and highestrogen exposure subgroups for all risk factors examined (Fig 1). Although the test for differential therapy effect of raloxifene between the two subgroups of estradiol level was not significant based on a therapy-by-subgroup interaction analysis (interaction P = .304), women in the higher estradiol level subgroup tended to have a greater risk reduction rate with raloxifene (79%) compared with women in the lower estrogen subgroup (64%). The differential effect of raloxifene between subgroups was statistically significant for two baseline characteristics. Although the reduction in breast cancer risk was significant for both the women with the highest femoral neck BMD (highest one-third, 94% reduction) (P .001) and for the women with lower BMD (lower two-thirds, 56% reduction) (P < .01), patients in the highest one-third BMD group had a significantly greater risk reduction rate with raloxifene therapy (interaction P = .005). Similarly, patients with a family history of breast cancer had a significantly greater breast cancer risk reduction rate with raloxifene compared with patients who had no family history (interaction P = .015).
For all other baseline characteristics (BMI, age at menopause, prevalent vertebral fracture, and previous HRT), the effect of raloxifene to reduce breast cancer risk tended to be numerically greater in the higher estrogen exposure subgroup, although the therapy-by-subgroup interaction was not significant (Fig 1).
In this 4-year, placebo-controlled trial in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis, we confirmed that women with higher lifetime exposure to estradiol, as indicated by higher baseline serum-estradiol levels, higher femoral neck BMD, higher BMI, previous HRT use, no prevalent vertebral fractures, and family history of breast cancer tended to have higher risks for invasive breast cancer. The inverse association between osteoporosis and breast cancer risk has been demonstrated in previous studies, which have described a 30% to 50% increase in breast cancer risk for each SD increase in BMD7 and a decreased breast cancer risk in women with previous hip fracture.6 We observed similar results in this trial. Women assigned to placebo who had osteoporotic (vertebral) fractures at baseline had about half the incidence of breast cancer as women on the placebo with no baseline fractures (relative risk, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.95). However, other studies have shown that the predictive value of BMD on breast cancer risk may be influenced by family history of breast cancer,24 endogenous estrogen, and other covariates.25 Nonetheless, this effect with BMD on breast cancer risk may be clinically relevant, because BMD measurements may serve as a surrogate for assessing a womans lifetime estrogen exposure and breast cancer risk. Overall, 4 years of raloxifene therapy significantly reduced the risk of invasive breast cancer by 72% in this clinical trial of postmenopausal osteoporotic women.23 Although the effect remained significant across subgroups representing different degrees of lifetime estrogen exposure, the therapeutic effect of raloxifene was greatest among women with evidence of higher lifetime estrogen exposure. Women with higher femoral neck BMD or a family history of breast cancer experienced significantly greater risk reduction on raloxifene compared with women who had lower BMD or who had no family history of the disease, based on significant therapy-by-subgroup interactions. Although baseline serum estradiol levels did not significantly alter the therapeutic effect of raloxifene, the higher estradiol subgroup experienced a somewhat greater protective effect with therapy. BMD or family history of breast cancer may serve as surrogates of estrogenicity, because increased BMD and positive family history predicted enhanced invasive breast cancer risk reduction with raloxifene in the MORE trial. The variable strengths of the associations between these estrogenicity surrogates and therapeutic effect may suggest that parameters such as BMD or family history of breast cancer may more accurately reflect lifetime estrogen exposure than a more recent snapshot of estrogen exposure provided by a single estradiol measurement. This differential effect of raloxifene on breast cancer risk reduction may be due to an increase in ER+ tumors with higher estrogen exposure and an ER-antagonistic effect of raloxifene that suppress ER+ tumor growth. Raloxifene may suppress the growth of subclinical tumors,20 opposing the stimulatory effects of increased estrogen exposure. The idea that the effect of a therapy can be modified by patient characteristics or even concomitant therapy has been demonstrated with another selective ER modulator: both ERT and obesity substantially increase the association between tamoxifen use and endometrial cancer risk among patients with breast cancer.26 The effect of raloxifene to reduce the risk of breast cancer differentiates it from ERT and HRT, which may increase the risk of breast cancer14,27,28 and which are associated with increased breast pain29 and increased breast density.30 In contrast, raloxifene does not cause breast pain31 or increase breast density in postmenopausal women.32 A limitation of this analysis is the level of detail of information available on previous HRT use. Because the type or duration of previous HRT use were not uniformly collected, no conclusions about different HRT regimens can be made. In addition, the majority of MORE patients were white. Although this is consistent with a population screened for osteoporosis, it may limit the extrapolation of these breast cancer findings to the general population. Finally, because women were selected for this trial based on their osteoporosis rather than their breast cancer risk, the only breast cancer risk factors collected were age and family history. Another limitation may be that women in our study had lower estradiol levels (with two thirds of the cohort having levels less than 12 pmol/L) compared with other published studies in postmenopausal women. For example, in an analysis from the Nurses Health Study (217 postmenopausal women, on average 61.5 years of age, 13.3 years past menopause, with BMI of 26.1), mean serum estradiol was 25.3 pmol/L (using a conversion of 3.671 to convert pg/mL to pmol/L).2 In the Study of Osteoporosis Fractures,1 women were, on average, 71 years of age, about 15 years past menopause, had BMI of about 27, and mean estradiol levels of 22 to 29 pmol/L. However, the breast cancer incidence in the MORE trial is consistent with the incidence expected for women over 65 years of age in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results database.32 The relatively higher-than-expected incidence in the MORE population may be due, in part, to increased detection by regular mammography.
Although the postmenopausal, osteoporotic women enrolled in MORE may have had low7 to normal33 baseline risk for breast cancer, raloxifene significantly reduced this risk during 4 years of therapy. Although the risk reduction rate was maintained in every subgroup related to lifetime estradiol, raloxifene may cause a greater breast cancer risk reduction rate in women with higher lifetime estrogen exposure. The definition of higher lifetime estrogen exposure could be based on higher BMD ( We conclude that raloxifene therapy reduces the risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal osteoporotic women regardless of lifetime estrogen exposure but that the reduction is greater in those with higher lifetime exposure to exogenous or endogenous estrogen. This differentiated treatment effect, greater efficacy in women with greater risk of breast cancer, enhances the safety and efficacy profile of raloxifene. The larger ongoing Ralifene for Use in the Heart34 and Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene35 trials will provide additional information on the effect of raloxifene on breast cancer risk.
We thank Evelyn Park, MSc, for statistical programming.
Supported by Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, IN.
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Copyright © 2001 by the American Society of Clinical Oncology, Online ISSN: 1527-7755. Print ISSN: 0732-183X
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