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Pretreatment Nomogram for Predicting the Outcome of Three-Dimensional Conformal Radiotherapy in Prostate Cancer

From the Departments of Urology, Epidemiology and Biostatistics, and Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY, and the Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH.

Address reprint requests to Michael W. Kattan, PhD, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, 1275 York Ave C1068, New York, NY 10021; email kattanm{at}mskcc.org

PURPOSE: Several studies have defined risk groups for predicting the outcome after external-beam radiotherapy of localized prostate cancer. However, most models formed patient risk groups, and none of these models considers radiation dose as a predictor variable. The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram to improve the accuracy of predicting outcome after three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was a retrospective, nonrandomized analysis of patients treated at the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center between 1988 and 1998. Clinical parameters of the 1,042 patients included stage, biopsy Gleason score, pretreatment serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, whether neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy was administered, and the radiation dose delivered. Biochemical (PSA) treatment failure was scored when three consecutive rises of serum PSA occurred. A nomogram, which predicts the probability of remaining free from biochemical recurrence for 5 years, was validated internally on this data set using a bootstrapping method and externally using a cohort of patients treated at the Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH.

RESULTS: When predicting outcomes for patients in the validation data set from the Cleveland Clinic, the nomogram had a Somers’ D rank correlation between predicted and observed failure times of 0.52. Predictions from this nomogram were more accurate (P < .0001) than the best of seven published risk stratification systems, which achieved a Somers’ D coefficient of 0.47.

CONCLUSION: The development process illustrated here produced a nomogram that seems to predict more accurately than other available systems and may be useful for treatment selection by both physicians and patients.

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